All Climate Events
Webinar: How Combination and Sequence of Weather Events Shape Mexico-U.S. Migration Flows
Monday, 19 April 2021, 2:45
Monday, April 19, 2021. 2:45 PM. Webinar: How Combination and Sequence of Weather Events Shape Mexico-U.S. Migration Flows. Filiz Garip, Princeton University. Sponsored by Cornell University. More information here.
Existing work presents mixed findings on the impact of weather events on international mobility. Relying on fine-grained data over a long time span (1980-2019) in the Mexico-U.S. setting, we turn to machine learning (ML) tools to first determine if weather events can predict migration choices of 150,000+ individuals. We use random-forest models which allow us to include a comprehensive list of weather indicators measured at various lags, and to consider complex interactions among the inputs. These models rely on data-driven model selection, optimize predictive performance, but often produce ‘black-box’ results. In our case, the results show that weather indicators offer at best a modest improvement in migration predictions.
This university-wide seminar series is open to the public, and provides important views on the critical issue of climate change, drawing from many perspectives and disciplines.