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Making Catastrophe Insurance Decisions When the Science Is Uncertain.

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Wednesday, 25 September 2019, 4:30

Wednesday, September 25, 2019. 4:30 PM. Making Catastrophe Insurance Decisions When the Science Is Uncertain. Richard Bradley, Visiting Fellow, Princeton University.  Sponsored by  Princeton University, Climate Futures Initiative in Science, Values, and Policy.  More information. 

Richard Bradley is professor of philosophy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He works mainly on decision making under uncertainty, but has broad research interests in formal epistemology, value theory, social choice, and philosophy of language (especially conditionals). His recent book “Decision with a Human Face” attempts to provide a theory of rational belief attitude formation and decision making for agents that face uncertainty taking a variety of forms and that are aware of their own bounds. During his time at Princeton, he will be looking at the implications of scientific uncertainty for policy making and focusing on the question of how to assess policies that differ in the nature and extent of the uncertainty that they impose on people.

Bradley will examine the pricing of catastrophe insurance and argue in favor of pricing methods that exploit the trade-off between the specificity of scientific projections and the level of confidence in them mandated by current scientific understanding. While insurance and reinsurance are useful mechanisms for dealing with the risks associated with natural hazards, the scientific uncertainty contained in computational projections of hazard frequency and severity need to be recognized, measured and communicated to decision makers and decision tools developed.



Location  Room 100, Guyot Hall, Princeton University