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Webinar: Predicting Arctic sea ice from seasons to centures: The role of internal variability in the midst of forced change
Tuesday, 14 May 2019, 1:00
Tuesday, May 14, 2019. 1:00PM Eastern. Webinar: Predicting Arctic sea ice from seasons to centures: The role of internal variability in the midst of forced change. Marika Holland, NCAR. Sponsored by UCAR|NCAR Climate & Global Dynamics. More information here.
In this talk, we examine approaches to Earth system modeling in the post-Dennard era, inspired by the industry trend toward machine learning (ML). ML presents a number of promising pathways, but there remain challenges specific to introducing ML into multi-phase multi-physics modeling. A particular aspect of such 'multi-scale multi-physics' models that is under-appreciated is that they are built using a combination of local process-level and global system-level observational constraints, for which the calibration process itself remains a substantial computational challenge. These include, among others: the non-stationary and chaotic nature of climate time series; the presence of climate subsystems where the underlying physical laws are not completely known; and the imperfect calibration process alluded to above. The talk will present ideas and challenges and the future of Earth system models as we prepare for a post-Dennard future, where learning methods are poised to play an increasingly important role.