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MJO Teleconnections and Subseasonal Prediction

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Thursday, 14 March 2019, 2:00

Thursday, March 14, 2019. 2:00PM. MJO Teleconnections and Subseasonal Prediction. Hai Lin, Environment Canada. Sponsored by NOAA GFDL. More information here.


The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, which has a significant impact on the global atmospheric circulation through teleconnections, and thus represents an important source of predictability on the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scale. To understand the dynamical processes of the MJO teleconnection, a primitive equation global atmospheric circulation model is used to study the extratropical atmospheric response to tropical diabatic thermal forcing of the MJO. Several aspects are examined, including sensitivity to the forcing location, nonlinearity of the response, and sensitivity to the initial state of the subtropical westerly jet. Most of the operational S2S models are able to capture the main features of the MJO teleconnection. The contribution of the MJO to S2S prediction of surface air temperature in North America and the North Polar region is also discussed.

Location  NOAA GFDL, Smagorinsky Seminar Room, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.