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Webinar: Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation in the JPSS-GOES-R Era
Monday, 19 November 2018, 12:00
Monday, November 19, 2018. 12:00PM. Webinar: Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation in the JPSS-GOES-R Era. Derrick Herndon, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Sponsored by NOAA. More information.
The SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) algorithm is being run as a real-time proving ground demonstration product at CIMSS starting in the 2017 tropical cyclone (TC) season. The algorithm blends concurrent TC intensity estimates from the geostationary-based Advanced Dvorak Technique (including GOES-16), microwave sounder TC intensity estimates from the CIMSS AMSU and SSMIS algorithms, CIMSS and CIRA ATMS estimates from S-NPP and JPSS, and TC structure information from the CIMSS ARCHER algorithm. Each SATCON input is situationally-weighted based on the member's statistical performance over several seasons. The final SATCON estimate is adjusted based on TC eye size, storm motion and storm structure inputs to produce an estimate that is more skillful than the individual members or a simple average of their estimates. Engagement, feedback and training of NHC/CPHC/JTWC end users have resulted in increased operational use of the SATCON intensity estimates during the 2018 season. NHC final storm reports now include the SATCON estimates as one of the TC intensity sources for determination of their final Best Tracks. Performance statistics for the 2017-2018 seasons compared to aircraft ground truth will be presented along with example cases that highlight the algorithm performance during challenging intensity analysis scenarios.