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Multi-scale predictability of extreme weather- Linus Magnusson, ECMWF

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Thursday, 05 April 2018, 2:00

Thursday, April 5, 2018. 2:00PM. Multi-scale predictability of extreme weather- Linus Magnusson, ECMWF. Sponsored by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. More information here.

Abstract: Predicting high-impact weather events is a crucial task for forecasting centres and is clearly a multi-scale issue. On the sub seasonal time-scale, the aim is to predict flow-regimes that have higher likelihood of extreme events. In the medium-range the challenge is to predict the timing, position and duration of the event. However, for some types of extreme weather it is still difficult for current models to capture the intensity even at the shortest scales. As extreme events by nature are rare, and each case is unique, a statistical evaluation is not straightforward. It is therefore necessary to identify key features for the development of the extreme events that are possible to verify and to identify where also less extreme cases will be useful. In the presentation I will give examples of high-impact events to demonstrate the challenges in sub-seasonal, medium-range and short-range predictions and what type of signals are expected. I will give example of evaluation and diagnostics that can be undertaken to better understand the predictability and limitations of the capability.

 

Location   NOAA GFDL, Smagorinsky Seminar Room, Princeton, NJ.