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Record warm global mean surface temperatures in 2014-2016 linked to large ocean heat releases from the western tropical Pacific

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Wednesday, 20 December 2017, 12:00

 

Wednesday, December 20, 2017. 12:00PM. Record warm global mean surface temperatures in 2014-2016 linked to large ocean heat releases from the western tropical Pacific. Jianjun Yin, University of Arizona. Sponsored by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. More information here.

 

A 0.24°C increase of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas forcing (GHG) and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century is GHG forcing. Climate models project that such events will increase in the future under elevated GHG forcing.

 

 

Location  NOAA GFDL, Smagorinsky Seminar Room, Princeton, NJ.