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The North American monsoon in a suite of high-resolution general circulation models: gulf surges and climate change

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Friday, 03 March 2017, 2:30

Friday, March 3 , 2017. 2:30 PM. The North American monsoon in a suite o f high-resolution general circulation models: gulf surges and climate change. Salvatore Pascale, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Princeton University. Sponsored by Rutgers Department of Environmental Sciences.  More information here.

Abstract:

The North American monsoon (NAM) is one of the smallest-scale  monsoons, but has a major role for water resources in northwestern Mexico and in  the southwestern United States (SW US). Particularly over the SW US, convection is modulated, at the synoptic timescale, by    intrusions of moist air masses from the tropical Pacific into the Gulf of California,  known as gulf surges. To what extent are these transients resolved in state-of-the art GCMs? In this talk I provide a detailed analysis of gulf surges in a suite of global models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (CM2.1, FLOR, CM2.5, CM2.6, HiFLOR) with same physics but varying atmosphere and ocean resolution ranging from 2 to 0.25 degree.  I will show that increasing atmospheric resolution greatly improves the temporal and spatial representation of gulf surges. Finally, using the same models, I investigatehow global warming affects the NAM.  This   remains an  elusive and challenging question, not least because coarse resolution and systematic biases  limit the reliability of   global and regional  climate models. Here I investigate the impact of   CO2 forcing using  idealized nudged-SST simulations with different boundary conditions.  

Location  Room 223, Environmental &Natural Resource Sciences Bldg. 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey