All Climate Events
Webinar: Building a Framework for Ecosystem Level Management Strategy Evaluation under Climate Change
Thursday, 29 September 2016, 2:00
Thursday, September 29, 2016. 2:00 PM. Webinar: Building a Framework for Ecosystem Level Management Strategy Evaluation under Climate Change. Phillip Neubauer, Dragonfly Data Science. Sponsored by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. More information here.
Climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems are often explored using complex models to make projections decades into the future under various climate change and fishing scenarios. However, studies using this approach rarely explore possible management scenarios to find desirable outcomes. An alternative approach would be to explore strategies that maintain resilient ecosystems under climate change, given a range of models of future changes in marine communities. This approach a management strategy evaluation that explores our ability to adapt to or mitigate climate change impacts at the ecosystem level – an adaptation strategy evaluation (ASE). For this talk, I will outline the humble beginnings of a size-based ASE model. The framework starts with a novel eco-physiological model of temperature and oxygen effects on ectotherm bio-energetics at the individual level. This model is easily scaled to populations, and integrated into existing size-based ecosystem models to explore secondary effects of size-based predation and fishing strategies under climate change. New methods to parametrize these ecosystem models for application in real ecosystems will allow us to represent key uncertainties about ecosystem model parameters and climate change impacts. I suggest that this framework can be used to assess the robustness of management strategies to an uncertain future in a range of ecosystems with varying degrees of data availability.