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The Operations Support Tool (OST): How Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Support Risk-based Decision-making for the New York City Water Supply

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Wednesday, 14 September 2016, 12:00

Wednesday, September 14, 2016. 12:00 PM. The Operations Support Tool (OST): How Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Support Risk-based Decision-making for the New York City Water Supply. James Porter, NYC Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply. Sponsored by NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. More information here.

 

The New York City water supply system provides over one billion gallons of high-quality water each day to more than nine million people. The water is delivered from a system of 22 reservoirs and lakes spread over 2,000 square miles north and west of the city. Releases are made from these reservoirs to support downstream interests including flood attenuation, cold water fisheries, salinity repulsion, drought mitigation, and water supply in the Delaware and Hudson basins. Operating such a large, complex, and multi-objective system is challenging, especially in an era of increasing regulations, heightened stakeholder expectations, and climate change. To help meet this challenge, DEP built the Operations Support Tool (OST). OST ingests ensemble streamflow forecasts from the National Weather Service and real-time environmental data to drive models of reservoir operations and water quality. The models provide ensemble output from which probabilistic information can be derived, allowing managers to make risk-informed decisions about system operations. This talk will describe the water supply system, give an overview of OST, and present use cases illustrating how ensemble streamflow forecasts enhance operational decision-making by providing additional information not available from traditional deterministic forecasts.

Location  Smagorinsky Seminar Room, GFDL, Princeton, NJ