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The Tug of War on the Jet-stream: Perspectives on the Jet Response to Tropospheric Warming in a Hierarchy of Models

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Thursday, 14 January 2016, 2:00

Thursday, January 14, 2016. 2:00PM. The Tug of War on the Jet-strem: Perspectives on the Jet Response to Tropospheric Warming in a Hierarchy of Models. Elizabeth Barnes, Colorado State University. Sponsored by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Click here for more information.

Climate models project enhanced tropospheric warming over the 21st Century in two regions: the tropical upper-tropospheric and the Arctic near-surface. The effects of warming in these two regions of the troposphere are largely expected to oppose one another, suggesting that the net response of the jet-stream will be the difference of two large numbers. Here, we explore the influence of enhanced warming in these two regions in both the present-day and future climate, paying particular attention to the response of the eddy-driven jet-streams. We will demonstrate that although there is evidence that Arctic warming may modulate the future jet response, the net response will likely be dominated by tropical upper-tropospheric warming. Furthermore, there is little evidence to suggest that the influence of Arctic warming on the jet-stream can already be detected in the observations. Finally, we will discuss the seasonality of the future jet-stream response in the context of the seasonality of this tug-of-war, highlighting the importance of seasonality in eddy-mean flow dynamics.

Location  GDFL, Smagorinsky Seminar Room, Princeton, NJ